![]() ![]() ![]() Watson alsosuggests that some of the critical steps may have changed the biosphereirreversibly. Watson considersthis "a reasonable first approximation for what is, after all, a veryidealized sort of model, deliberately simplified enough that the math can besolved analytically." Themathematical methods Watson used assume that each evolutionary step isindependent of the others, though they must occur in sequence. Even if intelligentlife eventually emerges, the model suggests its persistence will be relativelyshort by comparison to the lifespan of the planet on which it developed. ![]() In his model, theprobability of each evolutionary step occurring in any given epoch is 10percent or less, so the total probability that intelligent life will emerge isquite low (less than 0.01 percent over 4 billion years). Watsonestimates the overall probability that intelligent life will evolve as theproduct of the probabilities of each of the necessary steps. Several ofthese steps agree with major transitions that have been observed in thearcheological record. ![]()
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